HW5
Thoughts On Week Five and Other Things 1) Prediction Markets PredictIt A good site that predicts election outcomes. This is kinda relevant with this being an election year and we can watch it play out in realtime. Metaculus Metaculus questions the occurrence of future events based on different timescales and variables. I think the site is an interesting read. 2) What’s wrong with prediction markets? A big reason why prediction markets could be wrong is just the amount of variables that need to be accounted for. It’s nearly impossible to accurately predict down to the letter what the future holds and what impact that could have on the markets. 3) The universe is not a friendly place! I think it’s important to do good things but do them without their expectation that the universe does not owe you a thing. In my opinion, this is the lesson that should be learned, you can do everything right and still have nothing and have bad things happen to you. People sh...
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