HW2
Q1. Estimate the doubling time of the software development productivity of the average programmer, if productivity increases at 6%/year.
Link to Spreadsheet: Condit_Doubling_Time
Q2. Discuss what topic(s) and format(s) you are considering for your term project. Topic(s) can be anything future related. Format(s) can be a paper, a creative writing story, a program, a musical performance, a skit, a video, etc. Groups or individuals are both acceptable. You can change your mind later, but this question is to get you started thinking and writing about it. Word count for this question: 200 words or more. This project will be built step by step in each HW so it is not a big crunch at the end of the semester.
A2:
For my term project, I would like to stick close to what I do in my day to day job and career goals. Since I'm a software developer by day I'm thinking of building a "simple" machine learning program that can analyze images, data, or some other subset of information and make a predictive analysis. With this "basic" program, we can make some inferences about where this software is going and what's already out there and how it's being used.
A.I./predictive machine learning is a frontier in computer science at the moment and the benefits(and negatives) are a hot topic in tech circles and developers within the commercial sector as well as government and military complexes. I think it would be interesting to show how "simple" it is for people to build something like this on their own and shed some light on technology as a whole.
I have never built software like this but it's relevant to what I do with data hygiene and pattern of life analysis. I've always wanted to pursue this more and take the dive, this class seems like the best opportunity to do that. One of my co-workers plays with this stuff all the time, building out sports prediction and betting AI. The fact that there are so many libraries available right now should help me to get this finished in time but I'm aware this might be a bit ambitious and I might have to real in my expectations at some point.
Q3. We discussed the Delphi method. The questions below will give a more in-depth understanding of the Delphi method. Please post the answers on your blog.
A. This part of Q3 has two versions, one for those of you who were present in class for the lecture (maybe you are in an in-class section, or in an online section but attended this class), and one for those who were not present (maybe you are in an online section, or in an in-class section but had to miss class for some reason).
If you were present in class: For your question that we used the Delphi Method on in class, find the median and the range of the middle 50% of the responses. Using a graphics editor of your choice (even MS Paintworks for this), make a graph that is analogous or similar to the one in the lecture notes, showing the total range, middle 50% range, and median.
A1:
The doubling time for programming efficiency based on my graph is 13 years. We start with an efficiency score of 10 with an increase of 6% a year reaching a doubling at year 13 with an efficiency score of 20.
Q2. Discuss what topic(s) and format(s) you are considering for your term project. Topic(s) can be anything future related. Format(s) can be a paper, a creative writing story, a program, a musical performance, a skit, a video, etc. Groups or individuals are both acceptable. You can change your mind later, but this question is to get you started thinking and writing about it. Word count for this question: 200 words or more. This project will be built step by step in each HW so it is not a big crunch at the end of the semester.
A2:
For my term project, I would like to stick close to what I do in my day to day job and career goals. Since I'm a software developer by day I'm thinking of building a "simple" machine learning program that can analyze images, data, or some other subset of information and make a predictive analysis. With this "basic" program, we can make some inferences about where this software is going and what's already out there and how it's being used.
A.I./predictive machine learning is a frontier in computer science at the moment and the benefits(and negatives) are a hot topic in tech circles and developers within the commercial sector as well as government and military complexes. I think it would be interesting to show how "simple" it is for people to build something like this on their own and shed some light on technology as a whole.
I have never built software like this but it's relevant to what I do with data hygiene and pattern of life analysis. I've always wanted to pursue this more and take the dive, this class seems like the best opportunity to do that. One of my co-workers plays with this stuff all the time, building out sports prediction and betting AI. The fact that there are so many libraries available right now should help me to get this finished in time but I'm aware this might be a bit ambitious and I might have to real in my expectations at some point.
Q3. We discussed the Delphi method. The questions below will give a more in-depth understanding of the Delphi method. Please post the answers on your blog.
A. This part of Q3 has two versions, one for those of you who were present in class for the lecture (maybe you are in an in-class section, or in an online section but attended this class), and one for those who were not present (maybe you are in an online section, or in an in-class section but had to miss class for some reason).
If you were present in class: For your question that we used the Delphi Method on in class, find the median and the range of the middle 50% of the responses. Using a graphics editor of your choice (even MS Paintworks for this), make a graph that is analogous or similar to the one in the lecture notes, showing the total range, middle 50% range, and median.
- Hint: if you have an even number of data, the median will be halfway between the middle pair (the median of 1, 2, 3, 4 is 2.5, while the median of 1, 2, 3 is 2). If the number of data points is not divisible by 4, then how do you find numbers that divide the data points into the middle half, with the high quarter of figures above and the low quarter below? Interpolate: the interpolated numbers can be between two data points. For example, 2/7 of the way between 3 and 4 is 3 2/7.
- Hint: Maybe your data will not permit you to graph the middle 50%. However, maybe the data will allow showing the middle x% where x is some number close to 50 that works with the data. For example, if you have 7 data points then you could specify the middle 43% because that would contain the middle 3 data points.
A3:
What year will mass-market computer-brain interfaces be available replacing the need for standard desktop/laptop personal computers?
What year will mass-market computer-brain interfaces be available replacing the need for standard desktop/laptop personal computers?
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